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Johns Hopkins Health Alert

Can the PSA Test Predict Cancer?

A recent study suggests that a man's PSA level measured once when he is in his mid-40s to age 50 can predict whether he will develop prostate cancer up to 25 years later.

The prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test measures an enzyme produced almost exclusively by the glandular cells of the prostate. It is secreted during ejaculation into the prostatic ducts that empty into the urethra. PSA liquefies semen after ejaculation, promoting the release of sperm.

Normally, only very small amounts of PSA are present in the blood. But an abnormality of the prostate can disrupt the normal architecture of the gland and create an opening for PSA to pass into the bloodstream. Thus, high blood levels of PSA can indicate prostate problems, including cancer.

A blood test to measure levels of PSA was first approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 1986 as a way to determine whether prostate cancer had been treated successfully and to monitor for its recurrence. Today, however, PSA tests are FDA approved for prostate cancer detection and are widely used to screen men for the disease.

Now a article published in the the Journal of Clinical Oncology (Volume 25, page 431) suggests that a man's PSA level in middle age may be predictive of prostate cancer years later.

The researchers examined the records and stored blood samples of more than 21,000 men who were age 50 or younger between 1974 and 1986. An average of 18 years later, nearly 500 of the men had developed prostate cancer. The investigators compared PSA data from 462 of these men with data from a group of 1,222 similar men who had not developed prostate cancer. They also looked at other potential prostate cancer risk factors, such as family history, diet, and exercise.

A man's total PSA level in middle age was the strongest predictor of whether he would develop prostate cancer. Using a PSA level of 0.5 ng/mL or lower for comparison, the researchers found that men whose PSA level was 0.51–1.0 ng/mL were 2.5 times more likely to develop prostate cancer. For those with PSA levels between 2 and 3 ng/mL (often considered to be in the "normal" range), the risk was more than 19 times higher.

Bottom line: The results suggest that PSA measurement in middle age might one day be used to determine which men need more intensive prostate cancer screening and which can be screened less frequently.

Posted in Prostate Disorders on February 26, 2009
Reviewed July 2009

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Health Alerts registered users may post comments and share experiences here at their own discretion. We regret that questions on individual health concerns to the Johns Hopkins editors cannot be answered in this space.

The views expressed here do not constitute medical advice, and do not represent the position of Johns Hopkins Medicine or MediZine LLC, which has no responsibility for any comments posted on this site.


I had my first PSA test when I was in my 40s and have tracked my PSA readings since Jan 92 when I was 52. I have never had a PSA reading under 3.8. I have had 4 negative prostate biopsies. I suffer from an enlarged and chronically inflamed prostate. This condition seems to have genetic components. In my opinion PSA Test are of marginal value if you are suffering from chronic inflammation. DL

Posted by: dlemon | February 26, 2009

I am now 61 yrs old and have had a PSA of .6 - .7 (current)for years. All was thought to be okay until my PC was dicovered while undergoing a colonoscopy. Could be genetic or could be Agent Orange related. I suggest DRE along with the PSA for everyone regardless of PSA score.

Posted by: John A | February 28, 2009

I second the above comment about getting a DRE in addition to PSA. I also suggest getting it from a urologist, because they have more experience than internists in knowing what to look for.

I am 64 years old and my PSA was always 1.0 or below. My internist suggested seeing a urologist for a checkup and he urologist found a small nodule. Because of my low PSA, he dismissed it. I insisted on a biopsy and it turned out to be an aggressive prostate cancer.

Posted by: stebro | February 28, 2009

I'm 57 and have been getting regular DRE and PSA tests once or twice a year since I was 50. I started out at 50 with PSA of 3.5 and my last PSA reading was 6.98....All my DREs produce negative results. It's done by a urologist. I have never submitted to a biopsy. I also believe PSA scores can be tied to genetics and prostate inflammation. I'd be more concerned if the Stanford University researcher who developed the PSA didn't come out with a follow up study about three years ago saying that PSA as a marker for prostate cancer is ineffective. Yes. That's right. Ineffective. His name is Thomas Stamey, and you can find the report in the Journal of Urology October 2004. People with .01 PSA have come up with aggressive cancer, and people with PSA of 15 have not developed prostate cancer. So what does that say about it being an effective test. Anyway, that's his conclusion.

Posted by: Stuart Gordon | February 28, 2009



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